There’s a Storm a-Brewin’!

Aug. 3, 2001 — Tropical Storm Barry has picked up speed over the Gulf of Mexico and is racing toward Louisiana today, after having dumped a foot or more of rain over parts of Florida. The second named storm of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season — after Allison, which drenched South Texas in June — Barry is picking up strength and has a shot at growing into the first hurricane of the year.

And if meteorological predictions are on target, Barry won’t be the last of the big storms to hit this season: Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humbert, Iris, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Michelle, Noel, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy are waiting in the wings.

For the next several years, hurricanes may continue to be more frequent and severe than usual, experts predict. Are you ready?

In a July 20 study in Science, weather expert Stanley B. Goldenberg and colleagues report that the years 1995 to 2000 saw the most intense hurricane activity in the North Atlantic since reliable record-keeping began. This is a result of an increase in Atlantic Ocean surface temperature combined with a decrease in vertical wind shear, they say.

And get used to it — the pattern is expected to stay in place for at least another 10 years — maybe as long as 40 years.

“People who are affected by Atlantic hurricane activity, which are [those living in] the countries surrounding the Caribbean — [such as] the United States and Mexico — can look for a continuation of the high level of activity that we’ve seen in the last six years,” says Goldenberg. “We’ve [already] had storm after storm batter the Caribbean. The U.S. has not seen an increase yet. … There’s been a persistent trough off the East Coast of the U.S. for the last few years that has steered most storms away. But it’s only a matter of time before that moves.”

Goldenberg is a meteorologist from the hurricane research division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Miami.

A recent American Red Cross poll found that only about half of residents of the Eastern seaboard and along the hurricane-prone Gulf Coast are concerned that their families could be affected by a weather disaster — and only 41% have an evacuation plan. Of those who do have a plan, only 22% have explained it to their children.

Kathie Barton, public relations manager at the Alabama Gulf Coast chapter of the Red Cross, says that, “People have to understand that you’ve got to make plans in advance and you’ve got to act when you’re asked to do so.”

On the Eastern seaboard, hurricane season is June 1 to November 31, with the season peak from August through October. During that time, residents of coastal states from Maine through Texas should:

• Get a hurricane-survival pamphlet from your local TV station or other source
• Find out if you are in an evacuation route
• Find out if you need to evacuate because of the structure you live in (e.g., people in mobile homes need to evacuate before those in brick homes)
• Find out where your local hurricane shelters are
• Decide where to go if you need to evacuate
• Keep at least a half full tank of gas in your car
• Gather important papers and make sure insurance is documented and up-to-date
• Properly install high quality, commercial shutters (neither tape nor plywood boards do the trick)
• Stock up on bottled water, nonperishable food, rubber boots, flashlights, first aid supplies, and other needs (e.g., diapers, medication) and store them in a large plastic container
• Keep a battery-operated radio or TV with lots of extra batteries to keep in touch during power outages
• Figure out where to place individuals with special medical needs, including pregnant women
• Trim your trees
• Consider buying a generator; power outages after hurricanes can last weeks
• Avoid collecting candles, since using them can cause fires, especially in windy areas
• Find a hurricane shelter for your pet; they aren’t allowed in human shelters or most motels
• Do a hurricane drill with your family

Your local news media will tell you if your area is put on alert of an impending storm. If this happens:

• Decide when to evacuate, which depends on how far you have to go to reach safety
• Put up your shutters well before the storm because they are hard to maneuver during high winds
• Bring in everything possible from outside
• Fill your bathtub and available containers with water for drinking and bathing
• Keep a weather radio on 24 hours a day
• Follow the instructions given by the news media
• Don’t leave your home if you don’t have to
• Call family and friends in other regions to let them know you’re OK
• Remember, hurricanes kill, and your life is more important than your house, boat, car, or any other piece of property

After a hurricane:

• Keep abreast of the latest developments with your battery-operated radio or TV
• Drink plenty of bottled water to avoid dehydration
• Wear shoes or boots; there’s likely to be broken glass lying about
• Don’t go out if you can avoid it; downed power lines and other hazards are everywhere
• Don’t drink tap water until you are told it’s safe
• Be cautious when letting your pets outside
• If you use a generator, make sure you know how to operate it properly
• Don’t drive during flooding
• Help your neighbors or seek help from them if you need it

To learn more about hurricanes and how to prepare for them, go to www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd, www.redcross.org, and www.disasterrelief.org.